Russia is evaluating plans to use Ukrainian-made drones to execute covert kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region to obscure its responsibility, Lithuanian military intelligence warns.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the intelligence assessment, stating that authorities have obtained data indicating Moscow is considering unconventional kinetic operations targeting critical regional infrastructure. He noted that Russian forces are likely planning to deploy captured Ukrainian-manufactured uncrewed aerial vehicles to carry out these strikes.
By deploying captured Ukrainian platforms, Moscow aims to generate operational ambiguity regarding the origin of any strike on NATO territory, creating plausible deniability. Military drones have crossed into NATO airspace multiple times since the start of the 2022 invasion. While previous incidents were occasionally linked to Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian electronic warfare, officials across several nations suggest Moscow may be intentionally routing uncrewed platforms into the airspace of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Finland.
The warning aligns with broader intelligence from NATO’s eastern flank, where several alliance leaders have reported indications of impending Russian kinetic provocations and sabotage operations. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda previously highlighted that the nation’s critical energy and transport networks face heightened risks from both conventional strikes and covert hybrid attacks.
In response to the threat environment, Lithuania’s armed forces have been actively supporting the Public Security Service since mid-June to safeguard key strategic assets. These protected sites include the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnection with Poland, an electrical substation in the Alytus district, and the Kruonis Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Plant.
Defense Minister Kaunas recently extended the military’s security support mission through mid-August, deploying up to 30 service members along with transport vehicles and a naval vessel with its crew to bolster physical security around these vital installations. While Kremlin officials deny planning attacks against NATO members, Moscow continues to accuse Baltic states of permitting their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes—claims firmly rejected by Lithuanian leadership.
